After four days of high-quality Test cricket at The Oval, we’re down to the final stretch. England needs just 35 more runs. India needs four wickets. This Test – and the series – could swing either way on the final morning.
Let’s break it down.
Where We Stand: England’s Position at Stumps, Day 4
England closed Day 4 at 339 for 6, needing just 35 more runs to chase down 374. It’s not just a number—it’s a moment building towards one of Test cricket’s most dramatic finishes. With nerves running high and history hanging in the balance, Day 5 is shaping up to be a real nail-biter.
They’ve lost six wickets. Joe Root (105) and Harry Brook (111) were brilliant, but both are back in the pavilion. The game is still very much alive.
Jamie Smith is batting on 2 off 17, with Jamie Overton yet to open his account. The remaining batsmen – Chris Woakes, Gus Atkinson, and Josh Tongue – all have the ability to swing the bat, but this isn’t a walk in the park.
What this really means is, we’re heading for a thrilling finish.
England’s Chase So Far: Grit Meets Aggression
Chasing 374 was never going to be easy. Especially against a quality Indian pace attack on a fourth-innings Oval surface. But England approached it with confidence.
Zak Crawley started cautiously, then fell for 14. Ben Duckett looked promising with his 54 but couldn’t carry on. Ollie Pope chipped in with 27. The top three laid the groundwork.
Then came the game-changing partnership. Root and Brook batted like men on a mission. Root brought calmness, and Brook counter-attacked when needed. Their 195-run stand turned the match around. At 301-4, England looked almost home.
But Test cricket never runs out of drama.
Root fell on 105. Brook followed on 111. Suddenly, the door was ajar for India. And with the ball still doing a bit under lights, it’s not over yet.
India’s Fightback: Late Wickets Keep the Series Alive
India didn’t get everything right. But they’ve kept themselves in the contest. Siraj has been relentless with his line and length. Prasidh Krishna has chipped in with crucial wickets. And Akash Deep delivered under pressure by dismissing Brook.
The big question now is: can India take four wickets before England score 35?
It’s possible. But they’ll need early breakthroughs. Jamie Smith and Overton won’t go down without a fight, but they’re untested under this kind of pressure. If Siraj or Prasidh can strike early on Day 5, momentum could shift instantly.
Day 5 Conditions: What the Pitch & Weather Say
Let’s talk surface. The pitch at The Oval has held up better than expected. There’s some uneven bounce, but it’s not a minefield. That said, batting on Day 5 is always tricky.
Expect the ball to reverse. There’s also a bit of variable bounce that spinners like Ashwin might exploit. India might not rely on him heavily right at the start, but if the pacers don’t strike early, Ashwin could be the game-changer.
As for the weather, it’s clear. No rain threat. Play will start on time. This Test will get a full day. And every minute will count.
Match Prediction: Who Holds the Edge?
This one’s tough to call. England is ahead. No doubt. They need just 35 runs with four wickets in hand. But it’s Test cricket. Strange things happen.
Here’s the thing: England has the edge because of the runs required. That’s the reality. But India has enough firepower left in their bowling to create chaos.
If Jamie Smith and Overton can settle in for the first 30 minutes, it might be game over for India. But one early wicket and this could go to the wire.
So, here’s our prediction:
- England are the favorites – 65% chance of winning
- India is still in it – 35% if they take a wicket in the first 6-8 overs
Betting markets will reflect this, but don’t expect heavy odds on either side until the first wicket of the day falls.
Betting Tips for Final Day
If you’re placing bets or following live odds, timing is everything.
1. Session Betting:
Watch the opening 5 overs. If England lose a wicket, the odds will swing dramatically. Back India to win only if Siraj or Prasidh breaks through early.
2. Over/Under Total Runs:
Bookmakers might set the total around 365–370. If England don’t lose a wicket in the first 30 balls, bet on them chasing the total before 85 overs.
3. Player Performance Bets:
Jamie Overton is known for lower-order hitting. If you see aggressive intent from him early on, consider live bets on his individual score going above 20.
4. Fall of Next Wicket:
If the market allows it, consider backing the 7th wicket to fall under 350 if conditions favor swing in the morning.
5. Method of Dismissal:
LBWs and bowled are more likely in morning sessions with the ball doing a bit. That makes those methods interesting if you’re playing prop bets.
Just a reminder: Test cricket is unpredictable. Don’t bet blindly on momentum. Follow patterns, pitch behavior, and live visuals.
Key Players to Watch on Day 5
Jamie Smith – He’s only on 2, but he has a good domestic record. If he gets going, England will breathe easy.
Jamie Overton – Aggressive, confident, and capable of ending it quickly. But equally capable of throwing it away.
Mohammed Siraj – With three wickets already, he’s India’s best chance. Expect him to attack the stumps and bowl full early on.
Prasidh Krishna – He’s been expensive but strikes when it matters. His ability to extract bounce could unsettle Smith.
Ravichandran Ashwin – If things drag on, expect Ashwin to bowl with close-in fielders. One rough patch, and he’s in business.
Series Context: What’s at Stake?
This isn’t just about one Test. It’s the decider. The fifth and final Test of the India tour of England 2025.
Series currently stands at 2-2. Whoever wins this game takes the series. That’s massive for rankings, team morale, and future selections.
For India, winning away in England has always been a statement. For England, a successful Bazball-inspired comeback win would prove their brand of cricket works even under pressure.
So it’s more than just 35 runs. It’s about legacy.
Final Thoughts
Whatever happens, this is why we love Test cricket. Four days of tactical shifts, patience, grit, and now – everything riding on one session.
Expect drama. Expect nerves. Expect something special.
If England play smart and don’t panic, they should seal it. But if India bowl like they did in the last hour of Day 4, we’re in for a classic finish.
Either way, this one’s going down in the books.
For more expert match predictions, live betting tips, odds analysis, and trusted cricket betting strategies, head to CricketBettingTips.org. Whether you’re tracking session markets or full-match outcomes, our insights give you the edge when it matters most.