Ashes 2025-26: Australia vs England 5th Test Prediction, Betting Tips and Who will win the Test Match?

The fifth Test at the SCG starts on January 4, and while Australia have already wrapped up the Ashes at 3-1, there’s still plenty on the line. England’s win at the MCG was a statement. They rolled Australia inside two days and suddenly have some belief back. Australia won’t want to finish the series on a losing note, especially at home. This one’s got added emotion too. Usman Khawaja announced it’ll be his last Test after 88 games for Australia. He’s finishing at the SCG, his home ground, at 39 years old. There’s World Test Championship points up for grabs as well. England want to make it 3-2 and prove Melbourne wasn’t a fluke. Australia want the 4-1 score line. Should be a proper contest to close things out. Let’s break down with expert analysis, betting tips, pitch report, and AUS vs ENG 5th test Match prediction. Who will win the test match?

Team Performance

Australia cricket team:

Australia were still in the fight but something was off in that fourth Test. The bowlers did their job, created chances, but the batting let them down badly. That second innings was rough. The ball was doing a bit and nobody could handle it. Partnerships just didn’t happen, and suddenly the bowlers were left defending next to nothing. That loss came inside two days, which says it all. Even the ICC match referee called the MCG pitch “unsatisfactory.”

Selectors have kept faith though. They’ve named an unchanged 15-man squad for Sydney. No panic, no knee-jerk changes. Steve Smith and the boys are already training at the SCG, looking to bounce back.

There’s an emotional angle too. Usman Khawaja announced on Friday this will be his last Test. He’s 39, played 88 Tests, and he’s calling it at home in Sydney. Bit of a retirement party atmosphere around this one for him.

It’s just one loss though. This Australian side is still strong across the board. They’ve got quality in every department. If they bat first and put runs on the board early, they’ll be hard to beat. That’s been their recipe all series.

England Cricket Team:

England finally clicked in that fourth Test. The top order came out swinging with real intent, setting things up nicely. When the middle order had to dig in during that chase, they kept their cool instead of panicking.

The fast bowlers deserve credit too. They kept hitting good areas, got the ball moving around, and Australia cracked under pressure in that second innings. It was a proper collapse. England just looked different this time. More confident, better plans, and they executed when it mattered. That’s what had been missing earlier in the series.

For Sydney, they’ve got a selection call to make. Gus Atkinson needs a break, so someone’s coming in. Matthew Potts is the obvious pick since he’s the only unused quick from the original squad. Matthew Fisher’s there too after replacing the injured Mark Wood, so he’s an option as well. Either way, England have cover and they’ll back whoever gets the nod.

Pitch Report and Condition

The SCG has produced some iconic Ashes moments over the years. Australia love it here with five wins and six draws from their last 11 Tests. They haven’t lost at this ground since 2011, and that was a dead rubber.

The pitch can be tricky though. Six of the last 11 Tests have ended in draws because it tends to slow down and flatten out. First innings totals average around 374, so there’s runs on offer if you’re patient.

Steve Smith has piled on 902 runs here at 64.42. He knows this ground inside out. Nathan Lyon’s got 43 wickets at the SCG too, which matters because spinners usually struggle here compared to pace bowlers.

The stats back up batting first. Teams do it 91% of the time, though that doesn’t guarantee a win. What it does is give you control of the match, which counts for a lot at the SCG.

AUS vs ENG Today’s Match Weather Forecast:

Day 1 – Sunday, January 4 Decent start expected. Mid-20s, maybe a shower or two floating around but nothing major. Should get a full day’s play in.

Day 2 – Monday, January 5 This is the problem day. Storms brewing for the afternoon and evening, and they’re saying it could get ugly. Heavy rain, possible hail, strong winds. Could lose a chunk of play here, maybe the whole afternoon session

Day 3 – Tuesday, January 6 Still a bit dodgy. Showers likely in the morning and afternoon, another storm possible. Not as bad as Monday but still enough to cause stoppages

Day 4 – Wednesday, January 7 Should be clearing up by now. Drier conditions, low-20s. Fingers crossed we get uninterrupted cricket.

Day 5 – Thursday, January 8 Looking good. Clear skies, mid-20s. If we get to day five, weather won’t be an issue.

AUS vs ENG 5th Test Match Playing 11

Today Test Match Prediction:  Team batting first are the favourite for the fifth test in The Ashes series 202-26.

Also, check live cricket betting odds on trusted cricket betting sites.

Today’s cricket betting tips AUS vs ENG 5th Test match

• Who will win today’s Toss: Australia wins toss and opt to bat first
• Top Batter Performance: Usman Khawaja
• Top Bowling Performance: Ben Stokes
• Expert betting tips: Team batting first are safe to bet for 5th test match Ashes series 2025-26