Australia vs England 4th Test Match Prediction and betting tips | Who will win today’s test match?

As the Boxing Day Test gets underway at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Australia walks into the fourth Test with confidence firmly on their side. Having already secured the Ashes with a commanding 3–0 series lead, the hosts are playing with freedom, depth, and momentum. England, on the other hand, are in a must-respond situation, fighting more for pride than the trophy. Let’s break down with details insights, team performance, betting tips and AUS vs ENG 4th test match prediction. Who will win the test match?

Team Performance

Australia cricket team: Australia’s dominance is clearly reflected in the numbers. They have won the first 25 overs of most innings, preventing early damage even when wickets fell. The middle order has regularly converted starts into match-defining scores, while the lower order has added 40–70 crucial runs, repeatedly extending Australia’s totals. With the ball, their bowlers have maintained disciplined lengths in the 6–8 metre range, building pressure rather than relying on pace. This sustained control has led to England losing wickets in clusters of 20–30 balls, underlining Australia’s ability to tighten sessions and strike decisively. Some changes in the Sqaud as Patt Cummins ruled out of the test series due to injury

England Cricket Team: England’s struggles are evident in both patterns and numbers. Despite promising starts, they have repeatedly lost momentum, often surrendering wickets immediately after drinks or session breaks, highlighting lapses in concentration. The middle order has been particularly vulnerable during post-lunch and late sessions, where disciplined bowling has exposed loose shot selection. With the ball, England have generated chances but failed to sustain pressure, frequently breaking rhythm through short spells and lacking a genuine strike threat in the absence of Jofra Archer. At a venue like the MCG, where long, controlled spells are essential, this has been costly. Overall, England have played reactive Test cricket, allowing Australia to dictate terms and control the narrative.

AUS vs England 4th Test Match Playing 11

Pitch Report:

The Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) pitch for the 4th Ashes Test is expected to be highly conducive to pace bowling, with stand-in captain Steve Smith describing it as "quite furry" with around 10mm of grass. This significant grass cover, combined with early moisture, will offer substantial seam movement and extra bounce on Day 1, making batting a challenging task. The unique insight here is the pronounced dominance of pacers, who have taken 124 wickets compared to just 50 for spinners in the last five Tests at this venue, a 71.5% share, suggesting a clear path to success for a strong pace attack. The pitch is expected to flatten out and become a better batting surface from Day 3 onwards as the match progresses.

Weather Report:

Melbourne's weather for the Test is predicted to be a classic case of "four seasons in a day," with a stark contrast between the start and end of the match. Day 1 (Boxing Day) will be unseasonably cool and overcast, with temperatures only reaching around 17°C, which will prolong the swing and seam conditions that bowlers thrive on. The unique insight is the significant shift: by Day 4 and 5, conditions are forecast to become very hot and sunny, with temperatures potentially soaring into the low 30s. This change will rapidly dry the pitch, bringing the possibility of spin into play late in the game and testing player stamina under extreme heat warnings.

Test Match Prediction: Team Batting first are the favourites for the fourth test in The Ashes series 2025-26.

Today's Cricket Betting Tips AUS vs ENG 4th Test Match

• Who will win today’s match toss: England wins toss and opt to bat first
• Top Batter Performance: Harry Brook
• Top Bowling Performance: Ben Stokes
• Cricket betting tips: Safe bet on Australia are expected to score 350+ or more, while England will likely aim for a target above 290